Weighted Pipeline
FrameworkRevOps
A forecasting method that multiplies each deal's value by its probability of closing based on stage. A $100K deal at 40% probability contributes $40K to the weighted forecast.
Summary: Weighted Pipeline
Weighted Pipeline is a forecasting method that adjusts the value of each deal by the probability it will close, based on its current stage. This produces a risk-adjusted view of expected revenue instead of treating all pipeline equally.
Core Formula
Weighted Pipeline per Deal
Weighted Value = Deal Value × Stage Probability
Total Weighted Pipeline
Total Weighted Pipeline = Sum of all weighted deal values
Examples:
- $100K in Discovery (10%) → $10K weighted
- $100K in Proposal (50%) → $50K weighted
- $100K in Negotiation (80%) → $80K weighted
Typical Stage Probabilities
- Prospecting / Early: 5–10%
- Discovery / Qualification: 15–25%
- Demo / Evaluation: 30–50%
- Proposal / Business Case: 50–70%
- Negotiation / Contract: 75–90%
- Verbal Commit: 90–95%
Why It Matters
Raw pipeline (sum of all open deal values) is misleading because it doesn’t distinguish between early- and late-stage deals. Weighted pipeline:
- Provides a more realistic expected revenue number
- Helps compare pipelines across teams, segments, or time periods
- Highlights the quality and maturity of pipeline, not just its size
Limitations
- Stage probabilities are averages and may not fit every individual deal
- Strong early-stage deals and weak late-stage deals can be misrepresented
- Requires regular calibration using historical conversion data
- Should be combined with other methods (rep judgment, AI forecasting, scenario analysis)
RevOps Role
Revenue Operations typically:
- Defines and maintains stage probability percentages based on historical win rates
- Builds and maintains weighted pipeline reports and dashboards
- Compares weighted pipeline forecasts to actual results
- Continuously refines stage probabilities to improve forecast accuracy