Forecast
A prediction of revenue that will close in a given period, based on pipeline analysis and rep input.
Forecast
Forecast is a prediction of revenue that will close in a given period. It's one of the most important outputs of RevOps -- the business depends on accurate forecasts for planning, hiring, and investor reporting. Forecasting combines data (pipeline, historical conversion) with judgment (rep and manager input).
Forecast Categories
| Category | Definition | Probability |
|----------|-----------|-------------|
| Commit | Rep is confident it will close | 90%+ |
| Best Case | Strong chance but not certain | 60-80% |
| Pipeline | In active sales process | 30-50% |
| Upside | Possible but unlikely this period | 10-25% |
Forecasting Methods
Bottom-up (rep-based):
- Each rep forecasts their deals
- Manager rolls up and adjusts
- VP applies judgment layer
Top-down (historical):
- Look at historical conversion rates
- Apply to current pipeline
- Adjust for known factors
Weighted pipeline:
- Pipeline value × stage probability
- Sum across all deals
AI/ML-based:
- Models predict based on deal attributes
- Remove human bias
- Requires good historical data
Forecast Accuracy
Forecast accuracy = Actual / Forecast × 100
Benchmarks: